Kamala Harris Leads Fox News’ ‘Power Rankings’ For First Time

Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump for the first time in Fox News’ “Power Rankings,” with both Georgia and North Carolina now categorized as toss-up states.
The broadcaster’s Power Rankings, which sorts the presidential candidates based on their standing in the 2024 election, shows that Harris is leading Trump, on 241 Electoral votes to 219, when toss-up states are not included.
It is the first time in the election cycle that Harris has led Trump in the Power Rankings.
Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer said Harris’ lead is due to Georgia and North Carolina, which have 32 Electoral votes between them, moving from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” states.
The Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics both also categorize North Carolina and Georgia as toss-up states.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Trump is ahead by a small margin of 0.5 points in Georgia, while Harris is ahead by an even smaller margin of 0.3 points in North Carolina.
Trump was ahead in both states before Harris became the Democratic candidate. Since then, Harris has cut the former president’s margins significantly, even overtaking his lead at various points in both states, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
The latest poll from North Carolina, conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies between September 6 and 9, showed that Harris was 1 point ahead, on 45 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. In another recent poll by Morning Consult, conducted between August 30 and September 8, the candidates were tied. Meanwhile, a Florida Atlantic University poll, published on September 6, put Trump 1 point ahead.
Polls coming out of Georgia have been equally as close. The latest ActiVote poll from September 10 put Trump and Harris neck and neck, while other recent polls have shown both candidates in front by between 1 and 3 points.
All the other battleground states are also categorized as toss-up states by Fox News’ Power Rankings, other than Michigan, which is categorized as “lean Democrat.” FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows Harris has a lead of 1.7 points in Michigan.
Despite Harris’ overall lead, Fox News’ Power Rankings leaves 78 Electoral votes up for grabs across the six toss-up battleground states, meaning the election is still anyone’s to win.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris currently has the lead in 5 of the battleground states—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada—while Trump leads in Nevada and Arizona.
However, pollster Nate Silver’s model shows that Harris is only leading in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while the candidates are tied in North Carolina and Nevada and Trump leads in Arizona and Georgia.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics puts Harris ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while they are tied in Nevada and Trump has the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast shows Trump is predicted to win in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, while Harris is projected to win in the four other swing states.
In this scenario, Harris would win the election with 276 votes to Trump’s 262.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.